June was quite a month, and we saw market movement that many investors struggled to understand. We’ve put together this summary in an effort to help you make some sense of things.
Rocky markets
Most equity markets were rocky throughout June, as investors digested downward shifts in global growth expectations and central banks continued monetary policy tightening to combat record-breaking inflation figures in the U.S. and Canada.
- Canadian stocks ended the month down by 8.71%, weighed down by declines in the energy sector as WTI Crude Oil ended the month 5.5% lower and natural gas retreated significantly to end the month down 33.4%.
- U.S. stocks declined 8.3% in U.S. dollar terms with all sectors in negative territory and energy reversing its earlier trend by declining the most at 16.9%.
- Canadian bonds declined for another month in June, finishing the month down 2.2% and 12.2% year-to-date as investors continued to price in expectations for further interest rate hikes.
- Emerging Market equities, while still negative, faired better than other global equity markets, as Chinese equities rallied on the heels of easing COVID-19 restrictions in the country and better than expected economic data.
Here are some of June’s most notable events:
Interest rates continued their upward march
Most central bank policymakers were squarely in action mode during June.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England delivered steep rate hikes to curb stingingly high inflation rates.
- At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Bank of Japan didn’t budge from its ultra low policy rate stance, as the country’s economy has been struggling with a flagging recovery after the onset of the pandemic.
Data shows moderating economic growth
On June 8, Laurence Boone, the Chief Economist of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), posted a sombre note on global economic growth expectations in 2022.
- The OECD revised their 2022 global growth expectations downwards, from 4.5% to 3.0% across its 38 member countries.
- They noted that sources of inflation varied by region but emphasized that supply limitations are expected to drive inflation higher in Europe and demand excesses could push prices higher in the United States.
Inflation is expected to average 8.8% across all its members this year – up from its 4.5% estimate in December 2021 – before slowly receding in 2023.
China to begin relaxing strict COVID-19 rules
The Chinese government started rolling back its strict “Zero-COVID” lockdown measures that began following a COVID-19 outbreak in the country earlier this year.
- Limited mobility of people and goods, and increased surveillance measures stifled the Chinese economy and consequently sent investors fleeing earlier this year.
Chinese equities roared up 8.67% (in Canadian dollar terms) in June, driven by easing COVID-19 restrictions and better than expected economic data.
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Did you know? The Canadian job market continued to show strength in April. The number of employees receiving pay or benefits from their employer increased by 126,000 (see chart below) and payroll employment for all provinces in Canada has now returned to or surpassed levels in February 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Job vacancies continue to increase, with employers now seeking to fill over one million vacant positions at the beginning of April, up 2.4% from the previous month, and up 44.4% from the previous year.
Source: Statistics Canada |
The benefits of automatic contributions
No matter what volatility the markets might see, the best way to invest in your future is through an Automatic Savings Program (ASP).
Contributing a fixed amount on a regular basis takes away the guesswork of trying to time the markets. It also brings you the benefits of dollar-cost averaging, since you automatically buy more units when the price is low and fewer when the price is high. This takes away the worry of trying to time your investments based on market performance and keeps you investing for your long-term goals.
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|
Change (%) |
3-yr CAGR* |
5-yr CAGR* |
||
|
INDEX† |
1 Mth |
YTD |
1Yr |
||
|
Treasury Bill (FTSE Canada 60 Day T-Bill) |
0.08 |
0.27 |
0.34 |
0.65 |
0.90 |
|
Bonds (FTSE Canada Universe Bond) |
-2.18 |
-12.23 |
-11.39 |
-2.30 |
0.18 |
|
Canadian Equities (S&P/TSX Composite) |
-8.71 |
-9.85 |
-3.81 |
8.00 |
7.64 |
|
U.S. Equities (S&P 500, US$) |
-8.26 |
-19.97 |
-10.64 |
10.58 |
11.29 |
|
Global Equities (MSCI World, US$) |
-8.63 |
-20.28 |
-13.92 |
7.55 |
8.25 |
|
Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets, US$) |
-6.63 |
-17.57 |
-25.08 |
0.87 |
2.51 |
†Total Return, as at June 30, 2022. Indices are quoted in their local currency.
*Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is the rate of return that your initial investment would need to experience to grow at a set level over a specified period of time.
Source: Bloomberg
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